王金亮导师研究小组的论文在SCI期刊Ecological Indicators上发表

2019年12月20日，以云南省高校资源与环境遥感重点实验室2016级硕士研究生陈云为第一作者、王金亮教授为通讯作者撰写题为“Ecological security early-warning in central Yunnan Province, China, based on the gray model”的论文在SCI期刊Ecological Indicators（中科院JCR二区，2018年影响因子4.49）.上发表(https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.106000)。该论文基于灰色模型，利用遥感数据、气象数据及社会经济数据，在1km×1km和县域两个尺度上，实现了对滇中地区未来（2020-2035年）生态安全状态的预警。该论文得到了王金亮教授主持的国家重点研发计划政府间/港澳台重点专项项目(No.2018YFE0184300)、国家自然科学基金(No. 41561048)、云南省哲学社会科学重点项目(No.ZDZZD201506)、云南省中青年学术技术带头人（No.2008PY056）、云南省高校科技创新团队支持计划的资助。

标题：Ecological security early-warning in central Yunnan Province, China, based on the gray model

作者：Yun Chen, Jinliang Wang *

通讯作者： Jinliang Wang, jlwang@ynnu.edu.cn

作者单位：1. College of Tourism and Geographic Sciences, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Remote Sensing, Universities in Yunnan, Kunming 650500, China; 3. Remote Sensing Research Laboratory, Center for Geospatial Information Engineering and Technology of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650500, China.

出版物：Ecological Indicators

摘要：Ecological security assessment and early-warning research on urban agglomerations is an important way to achieve the sustainable social, economic and natural development of urban agglomerations. In this study, the ecological security evaluation index system in central Yunnan Province (CYP) urban agglomerations was constructed based on the Driving Forces, Pressure, State, Impact and Response (DPSIR) framework, and the gray early-warning model was applied on the 1 km × 1 km pixel and county levels to realize early-warning of ecological security in the CYP in 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035. The early-warning results show that (1) the ecological security situation of the CYP will gradually improve. By 2035, the proportion of no warning (grade I) at the pixel level increased by 10.76%, and the number of non-warning districts and counties at the county level increased by 14. (2) In the future, the ecological security situation will remain serious. The lowest value of the ecological security early-warning index (ESEI) shows a downward trend (from 0.436 in 2020 to 0.404 in 2035), which indicates that the ecological environment is deteriorating continuously in some areas. (3) Eco-security warnings will be mainly located in the north, west and some central areas of the CYP, and these sites are where ecological security management and regulation should be strengthened in the future. The results can provide a reference for ecological protection and economic development decisions in the CYP.

关键字：Ecological security; Early-warning; Gray model; Central Yunnan Province